The clock is ticking for Congress to reach a deal on a spending bill to avoid a government shutdown slated to begin Oct. 1.
The United States government is veering toward a shutdown as President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Congress refuse to negotiate with Democrats on a spending bill that addresses key health care concerns for Americans.
While Republicans have a majority in both the US House and Senate, they need 60 votes to pass a spending bill in the Senate, meaning they’ll need support from at least 7 Democratic senators.
A shutdown, which is set to begin on Oct 1. if Congress fails to pass a bipartisan spending bill, could upend the lives of Arizonans as the busy travel season approaches. Airport wait times could increase, federal employees would see paychecks delayed, and several Arizona parks and museums would likely close.
What is a government shutdown?
Every year, Congress must pass, and the president must sign, 12 appropriations bills which provide money to different federal agencies to keep the operations of the federal government running.
If Congress fails to produce a spending agreement, or the president refuses to sign a spending bill, that leads to a shutdown.
In the event of a shutdown, a number of government agencies’ functions are temporarily paused, leading to a lack of pay for some federal employees until a spending agreement is reached.
Some nonessential workers are furloughed without pay, whereas other workers—like Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers and postal workers—still must work, but do not receive pay until the end of the shutdown, whenever that may be. That means some workers could go weeks, or possibly months, without seeing a paycheck.
The longest government shutdown occurred during President Trump’s first term, lasting for 34 days as Congress and Trump failed to reach a spending agreement, due in large part to Trump’s desire for funding for a border wall along the US-Mexico border.
How did we get here?
Since Republicans need Democratic support to pass a bill in the Senate, Congressional Democrats are urging bipartisan compromise, and specifically calling on Republican leadership to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits set to expire at the end of this year.
These subsidies were expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic to allow more people to qualify for them, leading millions more Americans to enroll in coverage.
If Republicans refuse to extend these subsidies, it would cause 87,000 Arizonans to lose their insurance, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a health policy research organization. Tens of thousands more could have to pay thousands more per year for the same plans, or switch to worse coverage.
Arizonans covered by the ACA could see their premiums increase by as much as 55% next year, according to the Arizona Department of Insurance and Financial Institutions, a state agency that regulates insurance and financial institutions.
So far, top Republicans have refused to budge on the issue and said the issue of ACA subsidies should be dealt with later. President Trump, too, canceled a scheduled meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss budget concerns, calling their demands “unserious and ridiculous.”
Democratic lawmakers, including Arizona Reps. Yassamin Ansari and Greg Stanton, said that a government shutdown would fall squarely on Republicans, who currently control all three branches of government.
Congressional Democrats are also urging Republicans to reconsider Medicaid cuts implemented earlier this year in President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which is estimated to cut more than $1 trillion from Medicaid and take insurance away from 10 million Americans over the next decade, including 290,000 Arizonans, according to KFF.
House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters there is “zero chance” Republicans will reverse any Medicaid provisions.
Rather than negotiate, the White House on Thursday resorted to hardball threats. In a new memo from the Office of Management and Budget, the White House instructed federal agencies to consider mass firings in the event of a shutdown, including eliminating positions where funding has expired, additional funding cannot be sourced, or positions that are deemed “not consistent with the president’s priorities.”
That means some federal workers in Arizona are at risk of losing their jobs permanently in the event of a shutdown.
How else will a government shutdown impact Arizona?
Arizona is home to three national parks – Grand Canyon National Park; Petrified Forest National Park, and Saguaro National Park. In the event of a government shutdown, Arizonans looking to travel to these sites, or tourists looking to visit Arizona, might face delays or potential closures.
The Grand Canyon sees millions of tourists per year and is a major source of revenue, contributing over $759 million to the local economy in 2022.
That’s why in 2023, when the government was veering toward a shutdown, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobb considered using state money to keep the Grand Canyon National Park open. During the 2019 shutdown, former Gov. Doug Ducey kept the park open by reallocating money from the parks and tourism departments, which cost Arizona more $64,000 a week.
In addition to the three national parks, the National Park Service manages 22 other sites in Arizona, including historic trails, monuments, recreation areas and more, such as Canyon de Chelly in Chinle and Casa Grande Ruins in Coolidge. These areas could close during a federal government shutdown.
Federally owned museums, including the Navajo National Monument and the Tusayan Pueblo Museum, along with the Arizona State Museum—an affiliate of the Smithsonian Institution—could be closed to the public.
Arizona’s federal employees who are considered “nonessential,” include some IRS employees, national park rangers, administrative staff at key federal agencies, and more, would be furloughed without pay until a spending agreement is reached.
Essential workers, including air traffic controllers, Transportation Security Administration officers (TSA), postal workers, and others, must continue working without pay. These workers would receive back pay once the shutdown ends.
A pause in operations could not only delay their pay, but also hinder operations for Arizonans in need of these federal services and create a backlog.
Medicare and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will continue, but there could be some minor disruptions.
Over 1.5 million Arizonans who rely on Social Security could also see some minor disruptions, including pauses to services such as benefit verifications, earnings record corrections, overpayments processing, and more. However, Social Security payments will continue without interruption.
With the upcoming travel season approaching, an extended shutdown could lead to longer wait times at airports. During the last government shutdown under President Trump in 2019, a significant number of TSA agents routinely called out of work after working without pay for over a month as Congress debated a spending bill.
Federal officials said employees called in sick as a form of protest, but a union official disputed this claim, stating employees were calling in sick for practical reasons—including being single parents who couldn’t pay for childcare, struggling to make rent, and looking for cash-paying jobs to offset the loss of pay.
What’s next?
Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill on Sept. 29 ahead of an Oct. 1 funding deadline. With limited time, both sides will need to agree on a bill to keep the government operating, or risk a shutdown.
